实例介绍
【实例简介】Reliability Assessment of Electric Power Systems Using Monte Carlo Methods （使用蒙特卡罗方法的电力系统可靠性评估）
【实例截图】
【核心代码】
Contents
Chapter 1
Introduction
1.1. Probabilistic Analysis of Power Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2. Reliability Evaluation Techniques ......................
3
1.3. Outline of the Book .................................. 4
1.4. References .......................................... 6
Chapter 2
Basic Concepts of Power System Reliability
Evaluation
2.1. Adequacy and Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2.2. Functional Zones and Hierarchical Levels. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
2.3. Requirements for Power System Adequacy Assessment .... 12
2.3.1. Generation System (HLl) Studies ................ 12
2.3.2. Composite System (HL2) Studies ................. 14
2.3.3. Distribution System Studies ...................... 15
2.4. Reliability Cost/Worth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
2.5. Reliability Data ...................................... 17
2.5.1. General Concepts .............................. 17
2.5.2. Equipment Reliability Information System. . . . . . . . . . 18
2.5.3. System Performance Data Collection Systems ...... 20
2.6. Adequacy Indices .................................... 22
2.6.1. Adequacy Indices in HLl Studies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 23
2.6.2. Adequacy Indices in HL2 Studies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 24
2.6.3. Adequacy Indices in Distribution System Evaluation
27
2.6.4. Reliability Worth Indices ........................ 29
2.7. Conclusions.......................................... 29
2.8. References
30
ix x
CONTENTS
Chapter 3
Elements Of Monte Carlo Methods
3.1. Introduction ........................................ 33
3.2. General Concepts .................................... 34
3.2.1. Two Simple Examples .......................... 34
3.2.2. Features of Monte Carlo Methods in Reliability
Evaluation .................................... 35
3.2.3. Efficiency of Monte Carlo Methods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
3.2.4. Convergence Characteristics of Monte Carlo
Methods ...................................... 37
3.3. Random Number Generation .......................... 39
3.3.1. Introduction.................................... 39
3.3.2. Multiplicative Congruential Generator ............ 39
3.3.3. Mixed Congruential Generator. . . . ... . . .. ... .... .. 41
3.4. Random Variate Generation .......................... 42
3.4.1. Introduction.................................... 42
3.4.2. Inverse Transform Method ...................... 43
3.4.3. Tabulating Technique for Generating Random
Variates ...................................... " 45
3.4.4. Generating Exponentially Distributed Random
Variates ...................................... " 47
3.4.5. Generating Normally Distributed Random
Variates ...................................... 48
3.4.6. Generating Other Distribution Random Variates .. "
50
3.5. Variance Reduction Techniques ........................ 52
3.5.1. Introduction.................................... 52
3.5.2. Control Variates.. . ... . ... . . . .. . . . . ... ... . ... . .. 53
3.5.3. Importance Sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
3.5.4. Stratified Sampling ........ ,. . . .. . .. . ... ... . ... .. 56
3.5.5. Antithetic Variates .............................. 58
3.5.6. Dagger Sampling. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
3.6. Three Simulation Approaches in Reliability Evaluation .... 60
3.6.1. State Sampling Approach ........................ 60
3.6.2. State Duration Sampling Approach. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
3.6.3. System State Transition Sampling Approach. . . . . . .. 64
3.7. Evaluating System Reliability by Monte Carlo
Simulation .......................................... 66
3.7.1. Example 1 .................................... 66
3.7.2. Example 2 .................................... 69
3.8. Conclusions.......................................... 71
3.9. References .......................................... 72 CONTENTS
xi
Chapter 4
Generating System Adequacy Assessment
4.1. Introduction ........................................ 75
4.2. Single-Area Generating System Adequacy
Assessment-State Duration Sampling Method .......... 76
4.2.1. General Steps .................................. 76
4.2.2. Generating Unit Modeling ...................... 78
4.2.3. Stopping Rules ................................ 83
4.2.4. IEEE R TS Studies .............................. 84
4.3. Single-Area Generating System Adequacy
Assessment-State Sampling Method.................... 91
4.3.1. Single Load Level Case. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 91
4.3.2. Modeling an Annual Load Curve ................ 93
4.3.3. Cluster Technique for a Multistep Load Model. . . . .. 95
4.3.4. Stopping Rules ................................ 96
4.3.5. IEEE RTS Studies .............................. 96
4.4. Multi-Area Generating System Adequacy
Assessment-Maximum Flow Algorithm ................ 100
4.4.1. Basic Procedure ................................ 100
4.4.2. Modifying the Area Available Margin Model
Using the Maximum Flow Algorithm .............. 101
4.4.3. Case Studies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 103
4.5. Multi-Area Generating System Adequacy
Assessment-Linear Programming Model ................ 106
4.5.1. Basic Procedure ................................ 106
4.5.2. Load Model of a Multi-Area System .............. 109
4.5.3. Linear Programming Model for Multi-Area Reliability
Evaluation .................................... 112
4.5.4. Case Studies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 115
4.6. Different Supporting Policies in Multi-Area Generating
System Adequacy Assessment .......................... 120
4.6.1. Incorporation of Different Supporting Policies ...... 120
4.6.2. Case Studies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 124
4.7. Conclusions .......................................... 128
4.8. References .......................................... 129
Chapter 5
Composite System Adequacy Assessment
5.1. Introduction ........................................ 131
5.2. System State Sampling Method and System Analysis
Techniques .......................................... 132 xii
CONTENTS
5.2.1. Basic Methodology .............................. 133
5.2.2. Contingency Analysis for Composite Systems ...... 134
5.2.3. Linear Programming Optimization Model .......... 137
5.2.4. Basic Case Studies .............................. 139
5.3. Incorporation of the Annual Load Curve ................ 142
5.3.1. Multistep Model of the Annual Load Curve ........ 142
5.3.2. Ratios of Generation-Transmission Adequacy
Indices ........................................ 143
5.3.3. Effect of the Number of Steps in a Load Model .... 145
5.3.4. Effect of a Nonuniform Load Increment
Step Model .................................... 149
5.4. Generating Unit Derated States ........................ 150
5.4.1. Sampling Multiderated States .................... 150
5.4.2. Case Studies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 151
5.5. Regional Weather Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 153
5.5.1. General Concepts .............................. 153
5.5.2. Basic Transmission Line Model Recognizing
Weather Conditions ............................ 155
5.5.3. Sampling Regional Weather States ................ 156
5.5.4. Determination of Transmission Line Forced
Unavailability and Repair Time with Regional
Weather Effects ................................ 157
5.5.5. Test System and Data .......................... 158
5.5.6. Case Studies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 160
5.6. Transmission Line Common Cause Outages .............. 164
5.6.1. General Concepts .............................. 164
5.6.2. Case Studies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 166
5.7. Bus Load Uncertainty and Correlation .................. 169
5.7.1. Tabulating Technique for Bus Load Normal
Distribution Sampling .......................... 169
5.7.2. Bus Load Correlation Sampling Technique ........ 171
5.7.3. Case Studies .................................... 172
5.8. Frequency Index and System State Transition Sampling
Technique .......................................... 179
5.8.1. Discussion on the Frequency Index ................ 179
5.8.2. System State Transition Sampling Technique. . . . . . .. 182
5.8.3. Case Studies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 185
5.9. Security Considerations in Composite System
Adequacy Evaluation .................................. 187
5.9.1. System Model Including Security Considerations .... 187
5.9.2. System Analysis Techniques ...................... 189
5.9.3. Hybrid Methodology ............................ 191 CONTENTS
xiii
5.9.4. Case Studies .................................. 193
5.9.5. Application of Variance Reduction Techniques .... 196
5.10. Noncoherence in Composite System Adequacy
Assessment ........................................ 199
5.10.1. Definitions and Measures of Noncoherence ...... 199
5.10.2. A Simple Example ............................ 202
5.11. Conclusions ........................................ 205
5.12. References .......................................... 206
Chapter 6
Distribution System and Station Adequacy
Assessment
6.1. Introduction ........................................ 209
6.2. Basic Concepts and Analytical Techniques for Distribution
System Adequacy Assessment .......................... 210
6.2.1. General Concepts .............................. 210
6.2.2. Basic Distribution Systems ...................... 212
6.2.3. Analytical Techniques .......................... 213
6.3. Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Distribution
System Adequacy Assessment .......................... 218
6.3.1. Probability Distribution Considerations ............ 218
6.3.2. Component State Duration Sampling Method ...... 219
6.3.3. Load Point Index Distributions .................. 221
6.3.4. System Performance Index Distributions .......... 230
6.4. Station Reliability Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 232
6.4.1. General Concepts .............................. 232
6.4.2. Station Component Modeling .................... 233
6.4.3. Component State Duration Sampling Procedure .... 236
6.4.4. Numerical Example 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 240
6.4.5. Numerical Example 2 ............................ 244
6.5. Conclusions .......................................... 251
6.6. References .......................................... 253
Chapter 7
Reliability Cost/Worth Assessment
7.1. Introduction ........................................ 255
7.2. Customer Surveys and Customer Damage Functions ...... 256
7.2.1. Basic Customer Survey Methods .................. 256
7.2.2. Questionnaire Content and Data Treatment ........ 258
7.2.3. Customer Damage Functions .................... 258 xiv
CONTENTS
7.3. Generating System Reliability Worth Assessment .......... 262
7.3.1. Assessment Techniques .......................... 262
7.3.2. Numerical Example ............................ 264
7.3.3. Application of Reliability Worth Assessment in
GenerationPlanning ............................ 265
7.4. Composite System Reliability Worth Assessment .......... 268
7.4.1. Assessment Method ............................ 268
7.4.2. Modified IEEE Reliability Test System and
Additional Data ................................ 272
7.4.3. Numerical Results .............................. 273
7.4.4. Application of Reliability Worth Assessment in
Composite System Planning ...................... 277
7.5. Distribution System Reliability Worth Assessment ........ 279
7.5.1. Assessment Techniques .......................... 279
7.5.2. Numerical Example ............................ 281
7.6. Minimum Cost Assessment in Composite System
Expansion Planning .................................. 282
7.6.1. Basic Concepts ................................ 282
7.6.2. Minimum Cost Assessment Method .............. 284
7.6.3. Case Studies .................................... 288
7.7. Conclusions.......................................... 294
7.8. References .......................................... 296
Appendix A
Reliability Test Systems
A.1. IEEE Reliability Test System (IEEE RTS) .............. 299
A.1.1. Load Model .................................. 299
A.1.2. Generating System ............................ 300
A.1.3. Transmission System .......................... 302
A.1.4. Additional Data .............................. 305
A.2. Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) .................... 306
A.2.1. Brief Description of the RBTS .................. 309
A.2.2. Load Model .................................. 309
A.2.3. Generating System ............................ 309
A.2.4. Transmission System .......................... 312
A.2.5. Station Data .................................. 313
A.2.6. Reliability Worth Assessment Data .............. 315
A.3. References .......................................... 316 CONTENTS
xv
Appendix B
Elements of Probability and Statistics
B.1. Probability Concept and Calculation Rules .............. 317
B.1.1. Probability Concept ............................ 317
B.1.2. Probability Calculation Rules .................... 317
B.2. Probability Distributions of Random Variables .......... 318
B.2.1. Probability Distribution Function and Density
Function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 318
B.2.2. Important Distributions in Reliability
Evaluation .................................... 320
B.3. Numerical Characteristics of Random Variables .......... 321
B.3.1. Expectation and Variance ........................ 322
B.3.2. Covariance and Correlation Function ............ 322
B.4. Limit Theorems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 323
B.4.1. Law of Large Numbers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 323
B.4.2. Central Limit Theorem. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 324
B.5. Parameter Estimation ................................ 324
B.5.1. Basic Definitions .............................. 324
B.5.2. Sample Mean and Sample Variance .............. 325
B.6. References .......................................... 326
Appendix C
Power System Analysis Techniques
c.l. AC Load Flow Models ...... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 327
C.l.l. Load Flow Equations .......................... 327
C.1.2. Newton-Raphson Model ........................ 328
C.1.3. Fast Decoupled Model .......................... 328
C.2. DC Load Flow Models .............................. 329
C.2.1. Basic Equations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 329
C.2.2. Relationship between Power Injections and Line
Flows ........................................ 331
C.3. Optimal Power Flow .................................. 331
C.4. Contingency Analysis ................................ 332
C.5. References .......................................... 336
Appendix 0
Optimization Techniques
D.1. Linear Programming ................................ 337
D.1.1. Basic Concepts ................................ 337
D.1.2. Generalized Simplex Method .................... 338 xvi
CONTENTS
D.1.3. Duality Principle .............................. 340
D.1.4. Dual Simplex Method ................. '" ... '" 341
D.1.5. Linear Programming Relaxation Technique. . . . . . .. 342
D.2. Maximum Flow Method .............................. 344
D.2.1. Basic Concepts ................................ 345
D.2.2. Maximum Flow Problem ...................... 346
D.3. References .......................................... 347
Index ...................................................... 349
Reliability Assessment of Electric Power Systems Using Monte Carlo Methods （使用蒙特卡罗方法的电力系统可靠性评估）
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